Crop losses due to insect infestations will increase by up to 50% with a 2 °C increase in global warming, mostly in the East African Region, largely driven by desert locusts. This is according to a new study, “Critical Gaps in the Global Fight Against Locust Outbreaks,” published in the Sustainable Agriculture Journal.
The report lays bare the link between climate change and the intensifying threat of desert locusts, revealing that locust outbreaks are no longer rare or seasonal events; rather, they are being driven by long-term droughts followed by bursts of heavy rainfall, a pattern that is becoming more common with climate change.
“Warm, wet soils provide perfect conditions for desert locusts to breed, multiply, and swarm. With rising temperatures and increasing climate variability, these outbreaks are expected to become even harder to predict and control,” the report states.
The desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) is considered one of the most destructive migratory pests in the world. A single swarm can span over 1,200 square kilometers and carry up to 80 million insects per square kilometer. These swarms can travel great distances quickly, devastating crops and pastures and leaving food insecurity in their wake.
The 2020 locust invasion in East Africa, which affected Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia the hardest, was one of the worst in 70 years. It put over 20 million people at risk of acute hunger and caused economic losses estimated at US$8.5 billion across Yemen and East Africa.
The report emphasizes that the first line of defense lies in early detection and intervention. Locusts often breed in remote and politically unstable regions such as northeastern Kenya, southern Somalia, Sudan, and the Afar depression in Ethiopia. Conflict in these areas, especially the ongoing civil war in Yemen and the 2020–2022 war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, has significantly disrupted surveillance and control operations, allowing locust populations to grow unchecked and cross borders with little resistance.
While aerial spraying of pesticides remains the dominant response strategy, the report raises concerns about over-reliance on this method. Between 2018 and 2020, over 1.6 million hectares were treated with broad-spectrum insecticides, including organophosphates and pyrethroids.
However, the report says such chemicals are not recommended for blanket application and have resulted in unintended harm to non-target species, including honeybees and birds. This has particularly impacted pastoralist communities and honey producers in countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, where bees are not only critical to biodiversity and agriculture but also hold cultural value.
The report also highlights the critical role of Indigenous and local communities in combating locust invasions. Many have generations of knowledge about environmental patterns, including the behavior and timing of locust outbreaks. During the 2020–2021 crisis, observations made by communities in remote areas were crucial in contributing to national early-warning systems.
The researchers recommend training local communities in the use of mobile technologies and data platforms to improve real-time surveillance. Empowering these communities with tools and platforms to report and respond to outbreaks could be a game-changer in locust control.
To truly address this recurring crisis, the report recommends a multi-faceted approach: developing user-friendly forecasting platforms, reducing dependence on chemical pesticides, improving early-warning systems, and integrating eco-friendly and Indigenous solutions into mainstream response strategies. Above all, it calls for global and regional collaboration to fill the gaps in funding, coordination, and accessibility, especially in conflict-prone areas.
