Half of the vegetation in Mt Kenya Forest will disappear over the next 15 years due to climate change and human activities. According to findings of a new research about the impacts of climate change in the Mt Kenya forest ecosystem, 49–55% of vegetation cover across the forest areas will be lost by 2040, with the most pronounced losses likely in lower zones, which are more sensitive to climate-induced vegetation stress.
The study’s results emphasize precipitation’s critical role in sustaining forest health and highlight the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including afforestation, sustainable land use planning, and policy-driven conservation efforts.
Mount Kenya forest is critical in carbon sequestration, water regulation, and biodiversity conservation, supporting endemic species. Additionally, the forest ecosystem serves as a major water tower, supplying over 40% of Kenya’s freshwater resources, which are essential for hydroelectric power, agriculture, and urban consumption.
“Despite its ecological significance, Mount Kenya’s forest is increasingly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns have altered forest dynamics, vegetation composition, and species distributions, leading to reduced forest resilience. Moreover, human activities such as illegal logging, agricultural encroachment, and unregulated grazing exacerbate forest degradation, further threatening ecosystem stability,” the study indicates.
According to the research, high-elevation ecosystems such as Mt Kenya are particularly sensitive to warming trends, with species migrating downslope in search of favorable conditions. This migration disrupts existing ecological gradients, leading to potential species loss and altered carbon cycling.
Furthermore, the study argues, the rapid retreat of Mount Kenya’s glaciers, primarily attributed to rising temperatures, has intensified hydrological imbalances, reducing water availability for both human and ecological needs. As a result, lower montane forests, which depend on stable moisture conditions, are experiencing increased vulnerability to drought stress and biomass loss.
“Significant widespread vegetation loss and bare soil exposure was observed between 2010 and 2020. This observed decline correlates with increased deforestation, agricultural expansion, and the impact of climate extremes such as erratic rainfall and rising temperatures. This magnitude of decline suggests not just seasonal stress, but long-term structural changes in forest cover, including reduced canopy density, lower photosynthetic productivity, and declining ecosystem resilience. Such changes may compromise the Mt Kenya Forest ecosystem’s ability to provide critical ecosystem services such as carbon storage, habitat connectivity, and hydrological regulation.
The study found that the lower zones of the forest are the most vulnerable as a result of both ecological and anthropogenic factors: “Ecologically, these zones lie at a transitional altitude where precipitation variability, soil instability, and temperature extremes are more pronounced. They are also subject to more intense human activity, such as land-use pressure from farming, settlement, and logging.
“Unlike the upper montane zones, which benefit from cooler microclimates and reduced human activity, lower montane areas lack buffering mechanisms, making them especially sensitive to both climate extremes and human encroachment. The combined effect heightens the risk of forest degradation, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem service disruption in these zones.”
The study highlights the importance of adaptive conservation strategies and their implications for forest management and conservation within the Mt. Kenya Forest Ecosystem, recommending that conservation efforts of the forest must be tailored to enhance ecosystem resilience and maintain biodiversity.
“On the ground, sustainable land-use planning can be operationalized through zoned agroforestry, payment for ecosystem services (PES), and stricter regulation of encroachment and charcoal production. Policies such as the Participatory Forest Management (PFM) regulations and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) can be leveraged to align conservation with livelihood needs, ensuring both ecological integrity and socio-economic sustainability,” the study recommends.
The full research report is available at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10661-025-14089-0
