As the heads of state summit kicked off on November 6 ahead of the opening of this year’s UN’s Climate Change Conference (COP 30) on November 10, the absence of the leaders of major world powers has cast doubt over the strength and unity of the global climate response.
This is after the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters led by the United States, China, India and Russia skipped the talks.
The uncertainty surrounding the participation of the major powers has rattled smaller nations that rely on global cooperation to finance climate adaptation and mitigation.
Delegates worry that without political leadership from the biggest economies, progress on key issues including climate finance, technology transfer and emissions cuts could stall.
Brazil, hosting the conference for the first time in the Amazon region, has rallied 53 heads of state and over 40 regional leaders to demonstrate commitment to the Paris Agreement goals. But despite this show of solidarity, the empty seats of major emitters have become the most telling symbol of the summit’s fragility.
“It’s difficult to drive global ambition when those most responsible for emissions are missing from the table,” said one African negotiator. “It sends the wrong signal at a critical time.”
For Africa, and Kenya in particular, the absence of strong leadership at COP30 could have far-reaching consequences. The continent, which contributes less than 4 percent of global emissions, continues to suffer disproportionately from climate impacts. Kenya faces intensifying droughts, floods, and erratic weather that threaten food production, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Kenyan officials have repeatedly underscored the importance of climate finance and technology transfer to sustain national adaptation plans. However, with major financiers distracted or disengaged, hopes for new commitments are dimming.
“When the biggest polluters fail to lead, it undermines confidence and delays the flow of critical support,” said a senior Kenyan delegate in Belém. “Countries like Kenya cannot afford another cycle of promises without delivery.”
Analysts warn that the retreat of traditional climate powers risks weakening the moral foundation of global cooperation. Nations that have made progress on clean energy and adaptation, such as Kenya, now face reduced incentives if the largest economies appear unwilling to honour their pledges.
Still, some see opportunity in the moment. With the old climate order in flux, emerging economies and regional blocs, particularly in Africa and Latin America, could assert greater influence. Kenya and its neighbours are expected to press for reforms in the global climate finance architecture, fairer access to adaptation funds, and stronger accountability for past pledges.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has urged delegates to prove that “the fight for climate justice does not depend on one or two nations.”
The challenge, however, remains immense. Without the participation of the top emitters, many fear that COP30 could end with limited progress and watered-down commitments.
