By Felipe de Carvalho/UN
As the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30 opens on November 10, in Belém, Brazil, scientists say the planet is on course to temporarily breach the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement.
That overshoot could still be short-lived, experts warn, but only if countries act fast to ramp up efforts on cutting emissions, adapting to climate impacts, and mobilizing finance.
Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit, UN Secretary-General António Guterres was blunt: “It’s no longer time for negotiations. It’s time for implementation, implementation and implementation.”
Under Brazil’s presidency, COP30 will revolve around an action agenda of 30 key goals, each driven by an ‘activation group’ tasked with scaling up solutions. The effort has been dubbed a mutirão – an Indigenous word meaning “collective task” – reflecting Brazil’s push to spotlight Indigenous leadership and participation at the conference and in the global fight against climate change.
Action agendas at COPs are built on voluntary pledges rather than binding law. But the scale of change needed is enormous: at least $1.3 trillion in climate investments every year by 2035.
Without urgent action, scientists warn global temperatures could climb between 2.3°C and 2.8°C by the end of the century, leaving vast regions uninhabitable through flooding, extreme heat and ecosystem collapse.
At the heart of talks in Belém will be the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap Report for $1.3 Trillion, prepared by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies. It sets out five priorities for mobilizing resources, including boosting six multilateral climate funds, strengthening cooperation on taxing polluting activities, and converting sovereign debt into climate investment – a move that could unlock up to $100 billion for developing countries.
The report also calls for dismantling barriers such as investment treaty clauses that let corporations sue governments over climate policies. Those disputes have already cost governments $83 billion across 349 cases.
Another key focus in Belém is the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – national climate plans that spell out how countries intend to cut emissions. To keep warming below 1.5°C, global emissions must fall by 60 per cent by 2030. Current NDCs would deliver only a 10 per cent cut.
Of the 196 Parties to the Paris Agreement, just 64 had submitted updated NDCs by the end of September. At preparatory talks in Germany in June, many countries warned that this ambition gap must be closed at COP30.
Delegates are also expected to approve 100 global indicators to track progress on climate adaptation, making results measurable and comparable across nations.
With the planet heating faster than ever, adaptation is now a central pillar of climate action. But the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns adaptation finance must rise twelvefold by 2035 to meet developing countries’ needs.
COP30 will also push forward the Just Transition Work Programme – aimed at ensuring climate measures don’t deepen inequality. Civil society groups are calling for a “Belém Action Mechanism” to coordinate just transition efforts and expand access to technology and finance for the most vulnerable nations.
COP remains the world’s leading forum for tackling the climate crisis. Decisions are made by consensus, driving cooperation on mitigation, adaptation and finance. Over the years, COPs have delivered landmark deals. In 2015, the Paris Agreement set the goal of keeping global temperature rise “well below 2°C” while striving for 1.5°C.
At COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” and to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Last year in Baku, COP29 raised the annual climate finance target for developing nations from $100 billion to $300 billion, with a roadmap to scale up to $1.3 trillion.
Taken together, the legal framework built over three decades under the UNFCCC has helped avert a projected 4°C temperature rise by the end of this century.
COP30 opens Monday, 10 November, and runs through 21 November.
The article has been adapted from the UN: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/11/1166313
