By Karabo Mokgonyana & Christian Hounkannou
The First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, starting this week in Santa Marta, Colombia, comes at a critical juncture in global climate governance. For Africa, this is a defining moment, but also a crossroads. In the historic port city on the shores of the Caribbean Sea, Africa will have to choose whether to expand fossil fuels and deepen risk or lead a just and sovereign energy transition.
With focus areas spanning financing, equity, technology transfer, and institutional reform, the conference presents an opportunity to articulate a distinctly African position on fossil fuel phaseout. This position must be grounded not only in climate science, but in the continent’s developmental realities, historical marginalisation, and collective aspirations for industrialisation and prosperity.
Africa enters this conversation with a unique duality. On the one hand, the continent that’s home to nearly 17 per cent of the world’s population is responsible for less than 4 per cent of cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, it is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, facing intensifying droughts, floods, food insecurity, and ecosystem degradation.
This asymmetry underscores a fundamental truth: while fossil fuel phaseout is a global necessity to limit warming to 1.5°C, it cannot be pursued through a one-size-fits-all framework that replicates historical injustices or constrains Africa’s development trajectory.
The approach to fossil fuel phaseout must therefore be anchored in the principle of climate justice. This requires acknowledging the differentiated responsibilities and capabilities of nations, as well as the structural inequalities embedded in the global energy system. For Africa, the transition away from fossil fuels is not simply an environmental imperative; it is a necessary socio-economic transformation that must simultaneously address energy poverty, unemployment, and industrial underdevelopment.
Currently, over 600 million people in Africa lack access to electricity, and nearly 900 million rely on traditional biomass for cooking. These figures highlight the urgency of expanding energy access as a foundational component of any transition strategy. However, expansion cannot be pursued through fossil fuel lock-in, particularly in the context of a rapidly shrinking global carbon budget. Instead, Africa has a historic opportunity to leapfrog to renewable energy systems that are decentralised, resilient, and aligned with long-term sustainability goals.
The case for fossil fuel phaseout is unequivocal. Scientific consensus, as articulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicates that global carbon dioxide emissions must decline by approximately 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 to maintain a viable pathway to 1.5°C. Continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure risks creating stranded assets and exacerbating climate risks, particularly for developing economies with limited fiscal buffers.
For many African economies, this is not just a climate risk, but also a development gamble with long-term consequences. This necessitates a forward-looking strategy for the continent to avoid the pitfalls of carbon-intensive development while maximising the co-benefits of clean energy transitions.
Consequently, a robust African fossil fuel phaseout roadmap must be structured around several core pillars.
First, it must adopt a differentiated and sequenced approach to the phaseout. Neither all fossil fuels nor all national contexts are equal. Given its high emissions intensity, coal should be prioritised for rapid phase-down in countries where it constitutes a significant share of the energy mix. Oil and gas phaseout timelines should be calibrated to national circumstances, with clear safeguards to prevent new long-term investments that undermine climate goals. Importantly, this sequencing must be regionally coordinated through existing mechanisms such as power pools to optimise resource sharing and grid stability.
Second, financing must be at the centre of the transition. Estimates suggest that Africa requires over $190 billion annually in energy investment to meet its climate and development goals by 2030. Yet current flows fall significantly short and are often characterised by high costs of capital and limited concessionality.
A just phaseout demands a fundamental restructuring of global financial systems to provide predictable, affordable, and accessible finance. This includes scaling up grants and concessional loans, operationalising loss and damage mechanisms, and addressing systemic barriers such as sovereign debt constraints and credit rating biases. Phaseout calls devoid of these adjustments risk being perceived as externally imposed constraints rather than enabling opportunities.
Third, the roadmap must prioritise industrialisation and local value creation. Africa’s transition cannot replicate extractive models where raw materials are exported with minimal domestic benefit. Instead, it must leverage the continent’s abundant renewable energy resources, including solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal, to build competitive industries in manufacturing, battery storage, and critical minerals processing. This requires deliberate policy interventions, including local content requirements, technology transfer agreements, and regional industrial strategies under frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Fourth, governance and institutional reform are essential. Effective phaseout requires coherent policy frameworks, regulatory certainty, and strong institutions at both national and regional levels. This includes integrating climate objectives into national development plans, strengthening energy planning processes, and enhancing coordination across ministries and sectors.
At the continental level, institutions such as the African Union and regional economic communities such as ECOWAS, SADC, and EAC must harmonise standards, facilitate cross-border trade, and advocate for Africa’s interests in global negotiations.
Fifth, the transition must be people-centred. Fossil fuel phaseout will have significant implications for workers and communities dependent on these industries. A just transition framework must therefore include comprehensive social protection measures, skills development programmes, and inclusive decision-making processes. This is particularly important in contexts where fossil fuel sectors are major sources of employment and public revenue. Ensuring that no one is left behind is not only a moral imperative but also a prerequisite for political and social legitimacy.
Finally, an African fossil fuel phaseout must assert sovereignty and collective agency. Too often, Africa’s energy future has been shaped by external actors, from colonial extraction to contemporary investment patterns. The current moment presents an opportunity to redefine this trajectory. By articulating a unified position grounded in shared principles and strategic priorities, African countries can exert greater influence in global forums and secure outcomes that reflect their interests. As such, Africa will have positioned itself not only as a participant in the global transition but also as a leader shaping its direction.
In practical terms, this means rejecting narratives that frame Africa as a passive recipient of transition pathways designed elsewhere. It also means challenging inequities in global energy governance, including restrictive intellectual property regimes and trade barriers that limit access to clean technologies. A sovereign approach to phaseout places African priorities at the centre while engaging constructively with international partners.
In Santa Marta, the question is not whether Africa should phase out fossil fuels. Rather, how to do so in a manner that advances its development objectives while upholding principles of justice and equity. At the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, Africa has a critical platform to articulate this vision. A pan-African fossil fuel phaseout is not a concession to global pressure. It is a strategic and necessary choice to build a resilient, inclusive, and sovereign energy future.
Karabo Mokgonyana is the Campaigns and Energy Advisor while Christian Hounkannou is an Energy Coordinator at Power Shift Africa.
