A strong El Niño is expected to strengthen over the next three months, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and triggering major shifts in rainfall patterns that could heighten the risk of floods in some regions and drought in others, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.
In its latest global seasonal climate update, the UN weather agency said the El Niño event has continued to intensify steadily and is projected to dominate global climate conditions during the August–October 2026 period.
The organisation noted that the warming Pacific Ocean is likely to amplify weather extremes already being intensified by human-induced climate change.
According to WMO, much of the globe faces a high probability of above-normal temperatures during the coming months. Rainfall patterns are also expected to change markedly, with some areas, including East Africa, receiving much heavier-than-normal rainfall, while others, such as Southern Africa, experience persistent dryness, increasing risks to agriculture, water supplies and disaster management.
For East Africa, forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall during the October–December “short rains” season, although local conditions will still depend on regional weather systems.
The latest WMO assessment reinforces recent warnings by the Kenya Meteorological Department urging county governments, disaster-management agencies and farmers to prepare early for possible flooding. Rainfall impacts are expected to vary considerably across the country, meaning local forecasts will remain critical for planning agriculture, water management and emergency response.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said early warnings and preparedness measures are essential because El Niño’s impacts are felt differently around the world but can have serious consequences for food production, water resources, health and infrastructure.
The organisation urged governments to strengthen disaster preparedness and ensure climate information reaches vulnerable communities before hazardous weather develops.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It alters atmospheric circulation worldwide, often bringing wetter conditions to some regions while causing drought in others.
Although El Niño itself is a natural cycle, its impacts are becoming more severe because it is now occurring in a warmer climate driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
The WMO first warned in June that there was an 80 per cent chance of El Niño developing during the June – August period and more than a 90 per cent probability that it would persist until at least November. The latest update indicates the event has evolved as anticipated and is now strengthening further.
Climate scientists caution that the combination of a strong El Niño and long-term global warming could push global temperatures to exceptionally high levels over the coming months.
Some research groups project that monthly global temperatures could temporarily exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels during early 2027
For Kenya, the developing El Niño calls for early planning in flood-prone counties, preparedness for possible disease outbreaks linked to heavy rainfall, protection of infrastructure and close monitoring of seasonal forecasts as the country approaches the October–December rainy season.
