This year’s Christmas could fall in the middle of an unusually wet season in Kenya with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasting that El Niño will peak in December.
WMO forecasts sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to reach about 3.7°C above normal for October–December, with the warming expected to peak around December.
“El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December. It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions,” the agency says, adding the event could be one of the strongest since 1950.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C, peaking around December. This is the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of + 2.6 °C in November 2015-January 2016.
“El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface, which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured,” Saulo told the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok.
Other ocean basins are also contributing to the seasonal outlook. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate pattern that can strongly influence rainfall around the Indian Ocean, is expected to peak in October and then decline.
In Kenya, the Meteorological Service Authority expects above-average rainfall in many counties, including Nairobi, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and Mombasa. It forecasts near-average to above-average rain in Turkana and some parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit..
The rainfall picture varies across Africa. The Southern African Development Community’s October–December outlook favours below-normal rainfall across much of Angola, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana and South Africa, even as wetter conditions are forecast for parts of eastern Africa.
