By Dan Kaburu and Peter Ngare
A new report by Power Shift Africa and Oil Change International is intensifying debate over Kenya’s growing fossil fuel ambitions, warning that decades of oil and gas extraction across Africa have largely failed to reduce poverty, improve livelihoods or deliver broad-based economic development.
The report, titled Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa, examined 13 African oil- and gas-producing countries and concluded that fossil fuel wealth has mostly benefited multinational corporations and political elites while leaving ordinary citizens exposed to inflation, debt, corruption, currency instability, conflicts and volatile global oil markets.
Its release comes as Kenya accelerates plans to join the ranks of commercial oil-producing nations, with commercial drilling in Turkana expected to begin before the end of 2026 and a proposed US$17 billion refinery project by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote under consideration in Mombasa.
But climate campaigners, economists, and energy analysts warn that Kenya may be moving in the opposite direction from global energy trends at a time when much of the world is rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy systems.
“At a time when the world is moving on from fossil fuels, doubling down on this broken model risks locking African economies into stranded assets and rising debt,” said Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa.
The report argues that the promise that oil wealth would transform African economies has repeatedly failed to materialize despite decades of extraction in countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.
Researchers found that many of Africa’s oil-producing states continue to struggle with poverty, unemployment, weak industrialization and mounting debt despite generating billions of dollars from petroleum exports.
Instead of creating inclusive prosperity, the report says, fossil fuel dependence often leaves economies vulnerable to external shocks, fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical crises beyond their control.
“This model concentrates wealth in the hands of multinational corporations and political elites, while communities are harmed by pollution, lost livelihoods and rising costs of living,” said Thuli Makama, Oil Change International Africa’s Director.
“Oil and gas have not and will not deliver development for Africa. Instead, this model concentrates wealth in the hands of multinational corporations and political elites, while communities are harmed by pollution, lost livelihoods, and rising costs of living. The only way forward is a shift to renewable energy that puts people first and delivers real, lasting development.” Said Thuli.
The report’s findings are emerging against the backdrop of rising global geopolitical instability, particularly tensions in the Middle East, which have triggered reduced global fuel supply disruptions and renewed oil price volatility.
Supporters of Kenya’s refinery plans argue that such instability demonstrates why East Africa requires stronger regional refining capacity to reduce dependence on imported fuel from the Gulf region.
Dangote recently announced he was favoring Kenya’s port city of Mombasa over Tanzania’s Tanga for a proposed 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, arguing that Kenya offers a stronger fuel market, larger economy, and better port infrastructure.
Backers of the project say the refinery could strengthen regional fuel security and position Kenya as a strategic petroleum hub for East Africa.
However, environmental groups say the Middle East crisis actually exposes the dangers of remaining dependent on fossil fuel systems tied to global political instability and commodity speculation.
“This should be the moment Africa doubles down on energy independence through renewables, not deepen dependence on fossil fuels,” says Amos Wemanya, Senior Climate Advisor at Power Shift Africa.
The debate has intensified following the landmark Santa Marta Climate Conference in Colombia, where nearly 60 countries gathered to develop pathways for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The summit was widely viewed as the first major international gathering focused specifically on practical plans for fossil fuel phase-out rather than simply reducing emissions. Delegates repeatedly argued that fossil fuel dependence is no longer only an environmental problem but an economic and national security liability.
Those arguments have now been reinforced by new findings from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) showing that renewable energy systems combining solar, wind, and battery storage can now generate reliable electricity at lower costs than many new coal and gas plants.
In its report 24/7 renewables: The economics of firm solar and wind, IRENA said solar-plus-storage systems can already produce electricity at between USD 54 and USD 82 per megawatt-hour in regions with strong renewable resources, making renewables increasingly cheaper than fossil fuels.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said the global energy transition had reached a turning point because renewable technologies are now commercially viable, scalable and increasingly affordable.
The agency projects renewable electricity costs could decline by another 30 percent by 2030.
Critics of Kenya’s new oil push say these global trends raise serious questions about whether long-term investments in oil infrastructure will remain economically viable over the coming decades.
The Power Shift Africa report warns that many African countries risk being left with stranded oil assets as major economies accelerate clean energy transitions and global demand for fossil fuels weakens.
Analysts also argue that Africa risks becoming what campaigners increasingly describe as “the world’s last fossil fuel frontier,” where multinational companies continue expanding oil extraction even as wealthier economies move toward electric vehicles, battery storage and renewable power.
Kenya’s growing fossil fuel ambitions are particularly controversial because the country is already regarded as one of Africa’s leading renewable energy producers. Most of Kenya’s electricity already comes from geothermal, hydro and wind energy, while the government has increasingly promoted electric buses, motorcycles and green industrial development.
The debate also reflects a wider ideological divide across Africa over the continent’s development future. Some leaders argue that Africa has a sovereign right to exploit oil and gas resources to industrialize and expand energy access, especially because wealthy nations built their economies on fossil fuels.
But critics say Africa now has an opportunity to bypass the fossil fuel era entirely and leap directly into renewable energy systems that are becoming cheaper, cleaner and more secure.
The Pipe Dreams report concludes that continuing to rely on fossil fuels risks repeating decades of extractive economic models that enriched elites while leaving producing countries poorer, more unequal and vulnerable to global crises.
“Oil and gas extraction is not a reliable pathway to inclusive and sustainable development in Africa,” the report states. “The overall model has systematically failed to deliver equitable outcomes.”
