By Seth Onyango
African negotiators are heading to COP31 with demands for greater access to public climate finance, a stronger role in shaping the global energy transition and a bigger share of the economic value generated from the continent’s critical minerals.
The agenda reflects a shift from demanding recognition of Africa’s vulnerability to insisting that climate commitments translate into financing, industrial development and tangible benefits for African economies.
At the centre of the negotiations is a push to establish a dedicated platform for discussing the financial obligations of developed countries, alongside efforts to operationalise the just transition mechanism agreed at COP30 in Belem, Brazil and ensure African governments shape how progress on climate adaptation is measured.
But the continent faces a difficult negotiating environment given that wealthy countries have resisted calls for a separate discussion on public finance, while African governments remain divided on how they negotiate access to their natural resources. Questions over debt, energy access and the terms of mineral extraction are also exposing tensions within the continent’s development ambitions.
Nana Dr Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, chair of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) on Climate Change, says securing a dedicated agenda item on public financing would be a major achievement: “There is no agenda item within the UNFCCC as we speak that provides space to discuss public financing.”
The African bloc wants the issue formally included under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which requires developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries to support climate action. However, wealthy nations have resisted the proposal, and Amoah expects opposition at COP31. “There is a likelihood that they will oppose the adoption of the agenda because of the inclusion of this agenda item,” he said. “Even keeping the proposal on the negotiating table would represent progress,” he added.
The dispute reflects a wider disagreement over the nature of climate finance. At COP29 in Baku in 2024, countries agreed to a goal of providing at least US$300 billion annually to developing countries by 2035, within a broader ambition to mobilise US$1.3 trillion from all sources. But the US$300 billion target includes both public and private finance and does not guarantee that the money will come as grants or other forms of concessional support.
Amoah wants public financing treated as a distinct obligation rather than absorbed into broader efforts to mobilise private capital. He argues that climate finance is declining at a time when African countries face mounting adaptation costs and competing development pressures. “We are seeing decline in climate financing, not only climate finance but also official development assistance,” he said.
Amoah also believes the 2025 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on states’ climate obligations has strengthened Africa’s negotiating position by clarifying the legal consequences of failing to meet climate responsibilities. Although the advisory opinion is not itself a binding judgment, it has added weight to arguments about accountability for climate action and support.
Omar Elmawi, convenor of the Africa Movement of Movements, argues that the summit should prioritise delivery over new declarations and initiatives. “Africa does not need another layer of ambitions, declarations and initiatives without the means to deliver them,” he said.
Beyond finance, African negotiators are increasingly linking climate justice to economic transformation, particularly the processing of critical minerals needed for renewable energy technologies.
Cobalt, lithium and manganese, among other resources, are essential to batteries, electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. African countries want to use their mineral wealth to attract investment in local processing and manufacturing rather than remain suppliers of raw materials.
Kudakwashe Manjonjo, a just transition adviser at Power Shift Africa, said economic development and climate justice should be pursued together. “There is no separation in terms of climate justice and economic opportunities,” he said.
The argument is gaining traction among African climate advocates, who see the global demand for transition minerals as an opportunity to negotiate better industrial and investment arrangements. “There will be no transition without our minerals,” Manjonjo said, describing the African Group’s position.
Shady Khalil, a senior global policy strategist at Oil Change International, also challenged perceptions that African countries lack bargaining power. “We’ve been told we are not powerful enough, but we are in a position of power. Transition minerals are in our ground,” he said.
However, Africa’s mineral wealth does not automatically translate into negotiating leverage. Amoah acknowledged that Western governments often pursue resource agreements bilaterally, approaching individual African countries rather than negotiating with the continent as a bloc. This weakens collective bargaining, particularly where national governments offer different investment incentives and regulatory terms.
Hope Dlamini, a strategist at Africa Change Lab, warned that poorly negotiated agreements could undermine the continent’s ambitions. “We often think that negotiating with rich countries from a position of mineral wealth gives us the upper hand, but we can undermine ourselves through the deals we sign,” she said.
Economist Aly Khan Satchu was also sceptical about Africa’s immediate bargaining position, pointing to geopolitical tensions, pressure on Western bond markets and competition for investment capital from artificial intelligence and other sectors. He questioned whether African governments had demonstrated the political commitment needed to ensure mineral processing serves national development interests.
Africa’s position on the energy transition will also be shaped by the challenge of expanding electricity access without creating new financial and economic dependencies.
The Turkish COP31 presidency is promoting a target for electricity to account for 35 per cent of global final energy consumption by 2035. But African advocates say the expansion must address the continent’s existing energy deficit and prioritise affordable electricity for households and businesses.
Amos Wemanya, a senior climate adviser at Power Shift Africa, said nearly 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity, while the continent receives only 21 per cent of the financing it needs for renewable energy, transport and universal energy access.
He warned against replacing dependence on fossil fuels with dependence on external financing and control of mineral resources. “Africa cannot simply exchange fossil fuel dependence for debt dependence, foreign control and a new era of mineral extraction,” he said.
Dlamini said the number of new electricity connections should not be the only measure of progress. The priority, she argued, should be whether electrification improves affordability, local access and productive capacity.
She also questioned whether the growing demand from artificial intelligence data centres should take priority in countries where electricity systems are already struggling to serve households and industries.
The financing structure presents another challenge, given that many African governments borrow in foreign currencies to fund infrastructure while collecting revenue in local currencies, exposing them to higher repayment costs when their currencies depreciate.
“We cannot finance a just transition through debt structures that make clean energy increasingly unaffordable and unattractive,” Dlamini said.
Seble Samuel, head of Africa campaigns and advocacy at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, called for international cooperation based on fair financing to support an equitable shift away from fossil fuels.
The debate builds on the COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. African countries are now seeking to influence how that commitment is financed and implemented, particularly in economies where energy access and industrialisation remain major development priorities.
On adaptation, Amoah warned against allowing external experts to dominate the process, arguing that African governments must retain influence over how progress is assessed. “Handing that process to experts, which are mainly from developed countries, is suicidal for us,” he said.
Simphiwe Ngwenya of South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission also emphasised the importance of ensuring climate finance reaches local governments, where adaptation measures are implemented.
African civil society groups are also pushing for stronger safeguards in international climate and trade arrangements. A position paper by the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance argues that the continent is paying repeatedly for a crisis it contributed little to creating..
The alliance also raised concerns about unilateral trade measures, including the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), warning that such policies could impose additional costs on African economies.
COP31, hosted in Antalya in Türkiye with Australia leading the negotiations, runs from November 9 to 20. Its implementation focus is particularly important for Africa as the continent prepares to host the following summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in 2027.
Amoah said progress at COP31 would provide a foundation for Ethiopia to build on. “Once we are able to get a decision here, Ethiopia will pick it up, and then we start building it up from there,” he said.
The article has been republished from Bird Story Agency: https://birdstoryagency.com/cop31-africa-has-won-the-climate-argument-but-in-turkiye-it-wants-to-win-the-climate-economy/
