Kenya could record an estimated 2,100 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as unusually high temperatures affect parts of the country
According to an analysis by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, 451,000 excess heat deaths worldwide are projected during the current El Niño episode.
Kenya’s projected toll forms part of a wider regional risk, with neighbouring countries also expected to experience additional heat-related deaths. The Climate Impact Lab estimates 3,800 additional deaths in Uganda and 3,000 in Tanzania, Somalia 2,600, while Ethiopia faces an estimated 4,800. Nigeria faces the largest projected national toll at 31,400, Sudan 17,500, while DRC and Niger could experience 10,000 deaths each.
The warning comes as Kenyans contend with persistent heat and delayed rainfall, raising questions about how the expected rainy season can coincide with prolonged sunshine and uncomfortable daytime temperatures.
The Climate Impact Lab’s findings point to the risk that prolonged exposure to high temperatures poses to human life, particularly among people whose health, living conditions or work leave them with limited protection from the heat.
The researchers estimate that global land temperatures will average 1.2°C above normal during the coming months, with 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a normal year
These conditions can increase heat exposure among outdoor workers, including construction workers, street vendors, farmers and transport operators. Older people, young children and people with existing health vulnerabilities may also face greater risks, particularly where access to cool indoor spaces, water and timely medical care is limited.
The Climate Impact Lab argues that heat mortality should be treated as a priority in disaster preparedness rather than as a secondary consequence of climate events. Its projections focus on deaths above those expected in an average year, not the total number of people who die from heat-related causes.
The researchers identify several measures governments can deploy to reduce heat-related deaths, including heat alerts, cooling centres, hydration stations, targeted health outreach to vulnerable people, protections for outdoor workers and additional capacity in health facilities.
For Kenya, applying these measures would require public warnings to reach people in the locations and occupations most exposed to dangerous heat, while health facilities need to recognise and respond to heat-related illness.
Employers can also reduce exposure by providing drinking water and shaded rest areas, adjusting working hours during the hottest periods where feasible, and allowing workers to take breaks when temperatures become dangerous.
